That must have been the longest short election campaign in memory. It’s finally behind us and I am glad that is over, thank heavens. Starmer fought a clever battle – talk a lot but say nothing, bar a few well chosen phrases on repeat. Phrases such as “fully costed” (we’ll see). Meanwhile he just let the Conservatives continue their long-term implosion. Professional politicians? Don’t make me laugh.
Anyway, we now have a government returned with just 33.7% of the vote, supported by only 20% of the voting population and yet enjoying a massive majority. It’s a blanket win – spread very wide but with no depth. For only the first time since 2001, Labour is the largest party in England, Scotland and Wales.
The decision to call an early election can only be seen as a fundamental error. I still cannot fathom why, with the economy improving Rishi decided not to wait. With many senior Conservatives losing their seats, maybe this is just what the party needed. With a new face of government, we will see new faces in opposition too. We will also see the wide smile of Nigel Farage, who has finally won a seat in parliament on his 8th attempt, I am sure he is ready to ruffle some feathers.
The market has reacted positively so far, with the main outperformer being housebuilders. I must admit, after 14 years of being in opposition I cannot see Sir Keir initiating quick changes as he has promised, especially with the summer recess imminent. I believe the rest of 2024 should be kind for equity markets. We now have the stability the market was calling out for; sterling strength since the election a sign of this. Other factors also look to be heading in the right direction.
The US on the other hand has another 6 months before the election. I would be amazed if the Democrats allow Joe Biden to run as their candidate of choice. His most recent press conference was a complete car crash, and he has struggled to improve in recent public appearances. This does not seem to impact the US market though which continues to hit all-time highs. This has been extremely concentrated though in a few stocks. Nvidia which I touched on in my 1st March blog continues to power on and has done a lot to propel the US markets. Fortune favours the brave for those that have bought direct. There are proxies or other ways to gain exposure for those with the risk remit, do enquire should you wish to find out.
Hopefully, the next time I write I will have more information on Labour policies to come and greater conviction on direction of travel. Hopefully the England team may have also won the Euro’s, who knows!
