If this were a game of charades you would expect me twiddle my hands around to indicate a book and a film. Both were pleasant little comedies if you enjoy that sort of thing. I’m not quite sure how you mime “government” but that is today’s borrower, and a big one too. Its debt has risen to 100% of GDP and is destined to rise further as the consequences of the [...]
Back In Town An unscheduled visit to the office on Thursday, necessitated by a thunderbolt blowing out the internet for most of the village on Wednesday evening, allowed me to see how the capital is recovering. I was pleasantly surprised by the numbers out and about but sad to see so many small enterprises closed. Train services are half what they were and not that full and, although the majority wore [...]
The Chinese stock market seems impervious to the travails of China itself, ignoring the ongoing war of words with Donald Trump on trade, the global pressures to rid the West of Huawei’s involvement in its infrastructure, accusations of misinformation re the Coronavirus origins in Wuhan, worldwide contempt for its stance on Hong Kong and much else beside. Indeed, the louder the global anti-China rhetoric becomes the greater heights the stock market [...]
I suggested in my last blog that unlocking the economy would be the biggest of several gambles the government has been forced to take with this awful pandemic. If the gamble fails, a second spike emerges and a second lockdown were to become necessary, the damage would be far worse than the economy has sustained thus far. There is just no way the government could repeat the emergency cash measures taken [...]
Views on the global economy, driven as ever by those on the US economy, started with a potential “V” shaped recovery, moved through thoughts of a reverse “tick” and then onto a “U” shape with an extended bottom. The stock market, particularly the US, has pretty much missed out the tick and the U and has convinced itself that its own recovery will be V shaped. So is this possible? The [...]
The world is likely to be much changed once we finally reach the other side of the Covid chaos. Something of this magnitude will leave an indelible imprint on peoples’ lives, changing attitudes and behavioural patterns, certainly for a time and, who knows, perhaps permanently in many cases. I would think we will generally be a bit more “make do and mend”, bringing a pause to the throw-away society we have [...]
I keep reading about the disruption caused by Covid-19. How right they are. After 50 years of travelling up to town and back home again in the evening, I can’t tell you how hard it is to change one’s daily routines. I might well get an extra hour and a quarter in bed in the morning but having risen early for so many years the body just doesn’t seem to want [...]
Those seeking income from the stock market have been dealt an awful blow in the current rout. What began as an understandable move by companies that foresaw a liquidity problem, as businesses are locked down and revenues interrupted, has mushroomed into something much wider. Cancelling or suspending dividend payments has become almost the thing to do. If most people are struggling then so should those greedy shareholders and any company that [...]
Goodness me, could the headlines get any scarier? The constant update of fresh coronavirus cases and new deaths, whilst informative, adds to the depressing atmosphere and exacerbates the panic. The daily political briefings are notable, not just for the necessary updates from the government but also for the constant emotive questioning by journalists clearly seeking to trip someone up for the sake of the next day’s scare story. We could really [...]
I had hoped my 50th year in the London Stock Exchange, marked this month, could be remembered with tidings of comfort and joy. I suppose if that half a century were to teach me anything it should have been to expect almost any alternative. In a few short days mother nature has ripped the rug out from beneath global markets and sent a shiver down the spine of anyone falling into [...]