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Santa Rally

21 December 2023

December has been a good month for indices, especially in the UK, Europe and US.  One of the best performers is the FTSE 250, which is up 6% this month alone.  As previously mentioned, the UK market is exceptionally cheap compared to its peers.  Hopefully this strong performance will carry into 2024.

News yesterday that the consumer prices index fell to 3.9% in November, down from 4.6% in October. With economists predicting a fall to 4.3%, this is far better than expected and further helped the Santa rally. Numerous speculators are now pointing to 5 interest rate cuts in the US next year, this seems far too Dovish to me. However, it does make the ‘higher for longer’ rhetoric seem old news.

Going into 2024, I am sure we will face headwinds. As we have elections in the UK & US.  Our UK election should be relatively calm compared to the US.  News yesterday that the state of Colorado has disqualified Donald Trump from the presidential primary ballot, this could well be reversed ahead of the November US election. That said there will continue to be fireworks until then.  With the UK election potentially in December 2024 – the latter end of the year could well be volatile.

I will write in the New Year with an update of how our 2023 tips have performed, along with our 2024 choices.

Wishing you a lovely Christmas period and all the best for 2024!

Neil MorssChartered FCSI